What I've been noticing recently is that we usually tend to get at least one colder than average month during the summer and/or autumn months but in the end, it always warms up in time for the winter. To an extent, this has already happened with August having a cooler than average CET and last year, it was November which was colder than average (indeed, that was the coldest November since 2010) although despite being so close to the start of winter, there wasn't really any snow with that.
This month's CET has also been running colder than average during this month so far, but it has warmed up a bit during the last day or so, and it wouldn't surprise me if that now ends up being the start of the usual big warm-up which then takes us through the winter with colder conditions not returning again until next spring/summer. The developing La Nina could also scupper our chances of cold weather as well, especially if it gets a bit stronger than expected (at one point in time, we hadn't even expected a La Nina and everyone at that time thought that there would be an El Nino and possibly a strong at that).
So, I don't have any doubts about it being yet another mild weather based on what recent years have been like, and the only question mark in my book is whether it will be a dry and high pressure dominated winter like last year, or a wet and stormy one like what we had in the year before that. At the moment, the models seem to be swinging towards a wet and stormy scenario. Furthermore, we are also going through a run of winters where every second winter has been really wet and stormy and if that continues for this year as well, this coming winter will also be a wet and stormy one.
Personally, I would love to see a cold winter and there will eventually come a time when we will get one, or possibly even two really cold winters in succession. However, I am struggling at the moment to see that actually happening, at least until we get onto the other side of the upcoming solar minimum in a few years' time.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.